Let’s unwrap the truth: This year’s holiday shopping season won’t be business as usual. If you’re planning your Q4 campaigns like it’s still 2019, Santa’s not the only one getting ghosted.
Shoppers are savvier. Budgets are tighter. And thanks to mobile, social, and AI, the entire customer journey is happening at lightning speed—online, in-store, and everywhere in between.
January Spring dug into the latest research from eMarketer, Salesforce, and Inmar Intelligence to help you stay ahead of the curve. Here’s what to expect from the 2025 holiday marketing season—and how to win it.
1. Holiday Shopping Is Starting (Way) Earlier
Holiday shopping has been inching earlier for years, but in 2025, it’s practically kicking off in September. Why? Amazon’s October Prime event—and the flood of copycat sales it inspires—has conditioned consumers to start browsing for deals well before the Halloween aisle is cleared out. This year, there’s an extra sense of urgency: looming tariffs could push already price-sensitive shoppers to stockpile goods before prices climb.
That means categories like toys (where 80% of inventory is imported from China), chocolate, and coffee could see early demand spikes. Combine that with economic anxiety and tight budgets, and shoppers are more motivated than ever to start early, spend strategically, and lock in deals while they can.
But let’s not pretend the rest of Q4 doesn’t matter. Despite the earlier start, November and December still account for about 75% of total online holiday sales. That makes it crucial to sustain your campaign momentum through every major peak—from Black Friday / Cyber Monday to those final “still shipping in time for Christmas” cutoffs (eMarketer).
In other words: launch early, stay late. If your brand disappears after Halloween, so will your conversions.
2. Shoppers are Budget Conscious
The 2025 holiday season is arriving under a cloud of economic pressure—and consumers are feeling it. Inflation fatigue, tariff uncertainty, and global instability have shoppers weighing everyday essentials against seasonal splurges. The result? Holiday spending isn’t disappearing—it’s just becoming more deliberate.
Forecasts predict a modest 1.2% year-over-year increase in total U.S. holiday sales, but that doesn’t tell the full story (eMarketer). Consumer confidence remains fragile, and budgets are tight.
Despite all of this, the holidays remain emotionally charged for most shoppers. They may be budgeting harder, but they’re still planning to celebrate—and they’re looking for small indulgences that bring joy. According to eMarketer, “economic uneasiness will drive consumers to bargain hunt, but the sheer number of SKUs available is elevating the importance of intelligent personalization.” Translation: shoppers want brands that get them—offering just the right blend of price, relevance, and feel-good value.
Marketers who win in 2025 will strike that delicate balance. Lead with utility. Offer promotions that matter. Then wrap it in messaging that speaks to why the holidays still matter—even in a tough year.
3. Mobile and Social Are the New Checkout Counters
If you’re not designing your holiday strategy around mobile and social media, you’re already behind. This year, mobile commerce is set to drive 56.5% of all US ecommerce sales. Meanwhile, social media advertising will drive 10 times more online shopping visits than traditional marketing. Ten. Times.
Shoppers are scrolling TikTok for gift ideas, comparing prices on their phones while standing in-store, and clicking straight from Instagram into shopping carts. And with shipping cutoffs looming large every December, the buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) model is projected to add another $28 billion to global retail sales (eMarketer).
In other words, your mobile site needs to be seamless. Your social ads need to convert. And your digital presence—whether it’s through creator content, short-form video, or interactive gift guides—needs to keep up with where people are actually spending their time.
4. AI Is No Longer a Trend—It’s the Engine Behind the Season
Generative AI has quietly become the most powerful holiday assistant on the market. From personalized promotions to real-time customer support and predictive product recommendations, AI is expected to drive $194 billion in holiday consumer spending this year.
It’s not just backend magic either. According to eMarketer, 17% of shoppers are already using AI tools (yes, like ChatGPT) to research holiday gifts, discover new products, and get curated ideas based on personal preferences.
The message for marketers is clear: personalization is no longer a nice-to-have. It’s the expectation. Whether it’s triggered emails based on browsing behavior or dynamic ads that adjust by audience segment, the brands that tailor their message in real time will win the sale—and probably the next one, too.
5. One Purchase Path? Not Anymore.
Here’s the new normal: 70% of consumers plan to shop online this holiday season. 65% plan to shop in-store. And 40% will bounce between both—finding a product in one place, buying it in another (Inmar Intelligence).
It’s no longer about choosing the right channel—it’s about being in all of them. The path to purchase is now a choose-your-own-adventure, and your campaign needs to hold up no matter where or how the customer engages. That means consistent creative, messaging, and offers across email, social, web, and in-store touchpoints. It’s not about being everywhere—it’s about being everywhere with intention.
6. Health and Wellness Are Hot this Year
This one might surprise you: more than 60% of consumers say they plan to buy healthier products this holiday season. And 95% are looking for ways to make those better-for-you options affordable (Inmar Intelligence).
The rise of wellness-focused shopping—fueled in part by new health habits and the popularity of GLP-1 medications—is shifting how consumers browse, budget, and buy. They’re still in-market, and they’re still looking for brands that meet their lifestyle and their price point.
Savvy marketers should take note: pairing savings with health-related targeting (think creator content, wellness bundles, or data-driven promotions) is a smart way to connect with these high-intent audiences.
Holiday Shopping 2025 Takeaways
- Start Early, Stay Late – Holiday shopping kicks off in September, but 75% of sales still happen in Nov–Dec, so don’t go dark.
- Value + Emotion Rule – Budgets are tight, but shoppers still crave small splurges—pair promotions with meaning.
- Mobile & Social Dominate – Phones and feeds are the new checkout counters; optimize both for seamless shopping.
- AI = The Holiday Engine – AI is powering personalization and driving $194B in spending—real-time relevance wins.
- Omnichannel Is Mandatory – Shoppers bounce between online and in-store; consistency across touchpoints is key.
- Wellness Is in the Cart – Over 60% want healthier products—brands that pair wellness with savings will resonate.
The Bottom Line: This Holiday Season, Show Up Smarter
Holiday 2025 isn’t about shouting louder—it’s about showing up smarter. Consumers are in control, and they’re rewarding brands that deliver value, meet them where they are, and personalize the experience along the way.
The playbook has changed, but the opportunity is bigger than ever. If you can lead with utility, deliver with emotion, and stay present across platforms, your Q4 could be the strongest yet.
Need help turning insights into action? January Spring is ready when you are.